Application of SARIMA to Modelling and Forecasting Money Circulation in Nigeria

This paper discusses the trend and pattern of money circulation in Nigeria. Its relevance lies in the fact that it could assist in monitoring the level of money circulation in the economy. Data on monthly records of money in circulation obtained from the central bank of Nigeria web database from January, 2000 to December, 2016 was analysed using the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology. The series was logarithmic transformed to normalise the series and stabilize the variance and thereafter differenced to achieve series stationarity. The Seasonal ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model was found to be appropriate in describing the patterns observed in the series. The model having passed the basic ARIMA diagnostic test was used to forecast for the next three years. This model is recommended for use until further analysis proves otherwise.